The Roar's AFL expert tips and predictions, Finals Week 1: September crystal ball, premiers, Brownlow, Norm Smith and more (2024)

The finals have arrived!

Eleven days after the most crazy, topsy-turvy home-and-away season we’ve ever had, it’s all on the line for the final eight as they vie for a premiership that still looms as being anyone’s to claim.

I can’t recall many Finals Week 1s more keenly anticipated than this one, either: with two proper blockbuster elimination finals – the Bulldogs-Hawthorn clash looms as being an absolute epic in particular – plus a Sydney Derby, as well as a final in four of five mainland states, this September looms as being a nationwide festival of footy, and a great leap from last season in which six of nine finals took place at the MCG.

As has been the case all season,

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Tim Miller

Premier: GWS

Runner-up: Port Adelaide

Biggest story: A line-ball ARC score review at a crucial stage will have everyone clamouring for the AFLW’s chipped Sherrins.

Brownlow Medal: Lachie Neale – better this year than last and has a penchant for polling in mediocre games.

Norm Smith Medal: Brent Daniels.

Definitely will happen: The Brownlow Medal goes to the final match called by Andrew Dillon – and it’ll be an even tighter count than last year.

Definitely won’t happen: The Bulldogs win another premiership from seventh – I don’t care what Champion Data says about them being the best team in it.

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Port Adelaide: I can fully understand why no one has any faith in the Power heading into September, but I have a feeling they might be this year’s Brisbane: a top-two team with a mediocre finals history finding a way to get it done at home in September. A Geelong team with a vulnerable midfield against Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Jason Horne-Francis looms as the perfect match-up for Ken Hinkley to start defying a few doubters.

Western Bulldogs: You’ve got to back your own team, don’t you? The most hyped elimination final in years, this is clearly the game I found hardest to tip – but the Dogs’ midfield is in slashing form, and I wonder whether five easy kills in their last six games with minimal resistance will be problematic for the Hawks if this game, as expected, is a tight one.

GWS: The Giants are pretty much the worst opponent the Swans could have drawn for this one, despite winning both their home-and-away Sydney Derbies. They’re not the same slashing team they were in those games, and with the Giants humming – aside from a virtual dead-rubber against the Bulldogs where winning would have been worse than losing for them – GWS should be going 4-0 against their crosstown rivals in finals

Brisbane: On paper, the easiest game of the round to tip – but I’m betting it won’t be the biggest blowout. The Blues go to the Gabba with nothing to lose a score of stars returning – the Lions, meanwhile, typically don’t cope well with the weight of expectation. They should still win, but if you’re a Brisbane fan, get ready to have your nerves properly jangled.

Dem Panopoulos

Premier: Sydney

Runner-up: GWS

Biggest story: Toby Greene has some sort of issue with the MRO after a victorious prelim.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Isaac Heeney.

Definitely will happen: NSW Premier Chris Minns asking why a rugby ground can’t host an all-NSW Grand Final.

Definitely won’t happen: A friendly comments section for me following any Brisbane result.

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Port Adelaide: The Tom Hawkins non-selection could really affect the functionality of Geelong’s forward line, and they don’t have a great record in SA for finals. I’ve long thought the Power won’t win a final this year, but this is their best chance at a prelim. Port by a kick.

Western Bulldogs: I covered the difficulty of this match-up for the Hawks last week, but there’s rain around. Still, no Will Day makes the Bont hard to cover. The Hawks have done everything we thought they could and more, but this could be the end of the road in 2024.

Sydney: The Swans simply have to win this game… AND not have a slow first quarter. I think the Giants are being looked at through rose-coloured glasses and might get a reality check in the first final before finding their feet as September goes on.

Brisbane: As a man once said, ‘say his name and he appears’. Well, I believe in Sam Docherty. It’s extraordinary, this comeback, and it’ll be the factor that spurs the Blues on the most. They’re against the odds and Brisbane have no choice but to win this match, for a multitude of reasons. I’ll tip the Lions – they should do it comfortably if they’re serious – but I’m not convinced they are.

Cameron Rose

Premier: GWS

Runner-up: Brisbane

Biggest story: Port chokes in another home preliminary final.

Brownlow Medal: Hopefully it’s Marcus Bontempelli’s time, even though the bookies have it as a two-horse race between Patrick Cripps and Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Kieren Briggs.

Definitely will happen: Umpires get way too involved late in a close game.

Definitely won’t happen: Geelong win the premiership.

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Port Adelaide: I’m going with Port reluctantly, only because I don’t rate Geelong. These are two of the worst top-four sides we’ve ever seen.

Western Bulldogs: I trust the Dogs with their extra finals experience, and Marcus Bontempelli’s ability to control a game.

GWS: I’ve been on Sydney all year, but I’m jumping off at crunch time. I don’t think they can recapture their early-season form.

Brisbane: You have to go with Brisbane at home over an unfit Carlton

Liam Salter

Premier: Sydney

Runner-up: Port Adelaide

Biggest story: Boring everybody, Sydney isn’t seriously troubled on their way to the premiership, despite Port’s grand final banner remindingthem of *that* 112-point loss this season.

Brownlow Medal: Nick Daicos.

Norm Smith Medal: Errol Gulden.

Definitely will happen: The media blowtorch will shift between Luke Beveridge and Chris fa*gan (after elimination and prelim final losses respectively), before landing right back on Ken Hinkley around 5pm on September 28th.

Definitely won’t happen: Rational discussion about an umpiring decision.Anyumpiring decision.Especiallylate in games.

Who wins Finals Week 1:

Port Adelaide: Living in Adelaide, it’s almost hard not to get swept up into the anxious yet excited atmosphere that is Port in finals. From coach-under-siege to genuine premiership threat; with a home crowd behind them, they’ll beat the Cats, getting a crucial home preliminary final.

Hawthorn: This should be a crazy good game – and it’s a damn shame one of these teams has to lose. The Doggies are always threatening, but the Hawks are this year’s feelgood story – and honestly, stuff it, I’m on board. Sorry, Dogs fans – and Tim.

Sydney: Another ridiculously hard game to pick. History’s no help – GWS are 3-0 in this finals fixture, but the Swans won both H&A games this year. The Giants should go deep into finals, but the minor premiers (and my premiership pick) will get the last laugh this weekend.

Brisbane: The Blues will be getting a lot of excellent players back. Sam Docherty’s return is bloody incredible and have (occasionally) proven they’re a force. But I remain as unconvinced about them now as I did even beforethatJack Higgins goal. Brissy, but probably within a goal or two.